Twin Crises - The Contribution of Overborrowing to Interdependencies of Banking and Currency Crises

Bachelorarbeit aus dem Jahr 2009 im Fachbereich VWL - Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, Note: 2,3, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster (Institut für Internationale Ökonomie), Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: The occurrence of twin crises can evoke serious recessions. From 1976 to 2002 there were 38 countries afflicted by at least one twin crisis. McKinnon and Pill (1996, 1997, 1998, 1999) set basic milestones in respect of international overborrowing and drew a linkage to twin crises. Their papers are still increasingly cited by current publications. This paper at first systemizes literature on currency, banking and twin crises and gives a review on several contributions. The second section deals with the third generation model of McKinnon and Pill concerning 'The Overborrowing Syndrome'. Their key finding is that loan guarantees may lead via excessive borrowing to a twin crisis. After this, policy conclusions to counteract international overborrowing and a review on the development of theoretical overborrowing papers will complete the second section. In section three it will refer to empirical studies on crises and overborrowing. Section four closes with final remarks.